Monday, June 11, 2012

Scott Walker's Victory In Wisconsin Recall Election May Portend Landslide Defeat For Barack Obama In November If Mitt Romney Picks The Right Running Mate

The 20-percentage point victory by Republican Governor Scott Walker over his Democratic opponent in Wisconsin's June 5th recall election not only defied predictions by many pundits, but also nullified an all-out campaign waged against him by public sector unions that at times came close to being quasi-terroristic. Alaskan conservative pundits Paul Jenkins and Dan Fagan, buoyed by Walker's success, are leading the charge for the outright elimination of public sector unions in Alaska, and Fagan even wants the state legislature to transform Alaska into a right-to-work state so that people don't have to pay a union to get a job.

However, the reverberations of Walker's victory may spread much further and wider -- all the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The current tenant, Barack Obama, could find himself searching for new digs effective January 20th, 2013 as a result. And the decision against him in November could even be a landslide, exceeding the magnitude of Ronald Reagan's victory over Jimmie Carter in 1980.

Landslide? Over Obama? I must be nuts, right? Stay with me on this one, and look at the electoral maps embedded below:

While the first map shows all the blue states in the November 2008 election, the second map shows only the most "deep blue" states. These deep blue states could rightfully be expected to be Obama strongholds which would go for Obama no matter how unelectable he became. Wisconsin is one of those states, yet its Republican governor won a 20-point victory over his Democratic opponent.

If Barack Obama can't even successfully defend his interests in a deep blue state, what chance has he to win in November? This is why I think the prospect of a landslide against him looms. The Council of Conservative Citizens notes that Walker's victory was only one of five Republican victories in Wisconsin on June 5th, and opines that Wisconsin now looks like it could vote Republican in the 2012 presidential election for the first time since Ronald Reagan won the state in 1984.

Ah, but therein lies the rub. The Republicans aren't putting up Ronald Reagan. Instead, it looks like Mitt Romney will be the standard bearer. And while Reagan was known as the Great Communicator, being exceptionally personable and engaging, Romney is better known for an image of technocratic corporate competence. While he looks like he knows what he's doing, he evokes very little passion. And since Mitt Romney lacks the capacity to become a "hail fellow well met", this means he'll have to import a running mate who can supply the missing passion.

But who? On June 8th, four prospective running mates showed up for a cattle call at the CPAC Convention in Chicago; former Senator Rick Santorum, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Politico's "Final Four" include Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Ohio Senator Rob Portman, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and South Dakota Senator John Thune. Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, the youthful chairman of the House Budget Committee, is also in the mix. But of these nine, only Gov. Christie has a reputation for lighting a fire under people with his no-nonsense two-fisted discourse. Working against Christie is the fact that he's from the same part of the country as Romney, and that New Jersey isn't exactly a small government state, having just implemented a measure in which drivers face a $1,000 fine for not properly restraining their pets in a vehicle.

That leaves three other prospective veeps who either can originate or orchestrate the passion needed to really make the Romney campaign soar:

-- Sarah Palin: This lady can still light up a scoreboard, and has a dedicated core cadre of supporters. But her detractors have successfully portrayed her as a "hick", and that's the kiss of death. Furthermore, Republican insiders blame her for McCain's defeat in 2008, although she actually may have propelled McCain further than he would have gone by himself. Palin will not be the running mate.

-- Ron Paul: His primary advantage is that he commands widespread support from a diverse group that doesn't like Obama, but can't get excited about Romney. Although he is 76 years old, he's in better health than Dick Cheney was when Dubya tapped him in 2000. Ron Paul is also playing hard-to-get, which means Romney would have to move a bit in his direction politically to land him.

-- Rand Paul: A younger and more vigorous version of Ron Paul, sharing the same political philosophy. The only drawback is that he seems to be marketing himself too aggressively to the Romney camp, which could weaken his bargaining power with them. Some Rand Paul supporters are put off by this. But two terms of Rand Paul would make a great follow-up to two terms of Mitt Ronmey.


  1. The trashing of the White House by Democrats should leave no doubt as to the quality of people in that party. Of course, trash is never upset by trash and so the voting will follow the same old predictable paths. Obama has a great opportunity to turn the country around but alas, he's just another mestizo enemy of the White worker who has a fondness for mongrels and certain lodges.

  2. If elections made a difference, they would be made illegal.

  3. Take pride in America! Vote! ¡Viva la México!
    Estado de Washington -- Folleto para votantes -- Electiones Generales -- 5 de noviembre del 2012

  4. Anonymous 11:16 A.M. -- I presume you are being facetious. ;)

    *****You're richer than you think.