Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Dittman Poll Shows 50 Percent Support Anchorage Proposition 5 Vs. 41 Percent Opposed; One Anchorage Got An Earlier Start, More Money, And Remained Civil

Yes, I know...my traffic analysis indicates that interest in Proposition 5 may be peaking out and that more people are interested in the school board and mayoral races. But each Prop. 5 post has been pertinent and newsworthy.

And here's one more that's newsworthy, because Alaska's most reliable and consistent professional pollster has taken the political pulse of Anchorage residents and found that if the Anchorage municipal election was held today, Prop. 5 would pass -- potentially by as much as nine percentage points. Alaska Dispatch reports that of 500 Anchorage voters surveyed by pollster Dave Dittman, 50 percent favor Prop. 5, 41 percent are opposed, and nine percent are undecided. Since it is unlikely that all nine percent will vote No on April 3rd, this indicates that Prop. 5 is enroute to victory, albeit relatively narrow.

The Dittman poll also indicates a potential landslide victory by Dan Sullivan over Paul Honeman in the mayor's race.

Update April 2nd: Blogger Andrew Halcro has access to crosstabs of this poll which were not posted elsewhere online. He states that Proposition 5 has support from every voter demographic except Republicans and residents of Eagle River. The largest margins of support are found amongst 45 to 59 year olds, women (who support it by a 20-point margin), and those who have lived in Anchorage for 10 years or longer.

While the constant drumbeat for gay rights and the passage of similar ordinances in other jurisdictions, most notably in the capital of "Mormondom" in Salt Lake City in November 2009, has eroded resistance and taken people off guard, I see two specific factors prompting favorable attitudes towards Prop. 5:

-- One Anchorage got the jump on the Alaska Family Council. One Anchorage launched an earlier start in September 2011, laid first claim on the publicity dollars, and has since out-earned and out-spent the Alaska Family Council's Protect Your Rights Vote No On 5 campaign arm. In contrast, the Alaska Family Council did not seriously jump into the fray until December 2011, and despite their best efforts and the support of 85 local religious leaders, have never really overcome the publicity deficit. Even now, Jim Minnery admits that, financially, their campaign against Prop. 5 is almost a day-to-day proposition.

-- One Anchorage has remained civil and respectful of the other side throughout the debate. While gay activists in other locations have sanctimoniously proclaimed that "civil rights should never be up for a popular vote", One Anchorage not only has embraced the democratic process, but has sought to use it to maximum advantage. They have strived to avoid publicly characterizing opponents to Prop. 5 as "homophobes" and "bigots" (the notorious progressive shrews Shannyn Moore and Elise Patkotak could learn from their example). And it seems to be working, as they have garnered sympathy throughout much of the community.

Despite the Dittman poll, Protect Your Rights Vote No On 5 remains optimistic that people can be convinced to vote No. On their Facebook page, they write "As you may have heard Dittman Polling published its polling results today on Prop 5. To summarize, if the vote was done today 50% would vote YES on Prop 5, 41% would vote No on Prop 5, and 9% are undecided. So as you can tell we have a so...me work ahead of us to close the gap by April 3rd. We will win this when each and everyone of us decides to make a difference by talking to our friends, families and co-workers and encouraging them to VOTE NO on PROP 5. If you need information please visit our website at http://protectanchorage.org/bad-for-business." I intend to vote No, and I even intend to wave a sign encouraging others to vote No on election day.

Nevertheless, if Proposition 5 passes, those of us who are opposed need to make it crystal clear that we will seek NO RECRIMINATIONS against the gay community. Since our Heavenly Father placed us on a mortal world where we can freely choose between a Redeemer and a Tempter, and respects our moral agency to make that choice, we incur a similar obligation to respect the moral agency of our fellow citizens to freely choose at the ballot box. Those of us who are Christians should always strive to mirror the attitudes and behavior of the Savior to whom we profess allegiance.



In closing, here's the video embed of a 33-minute sermon on Prop. 5 delivered by Anchorage Baptist Temple Pastor Jerry Prevo on March 25th, 2012. Pastor Prevo has been a powerful, positive, and articulate spokesman for traditional family and cultural values during his entire ministry in Anchorage, taking a licking but keeping on ticking. He is a true champion for Christ:

Watch live streaming video from abtlive at livestream.com

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