Sunday, October 31, 2010

Yep, Another Poll: Public Policy Polling Shows Joe Miller Leading The Alaska Senate Race With 37 Percent, While Scott McAdams Has Caught Up With Lisa Murkowski

Update November 1st: Two more new poll results added, from Metro Intergroup Communications and from Hays Research.

We've got us another poll. Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveyed 1,539 likely Alaska voters from October 30-31, and found that Joe Miller holds a narrow lead. Also of interest is the fact that Scott McAdams has caught up with Lisa Murkowski. PPP does not disclose who commissioned the poll. Here are the numbers (read the full 23-page output with crosstabs HERE):

-- Joe Miller (R): 37 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 30 percent
-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 30 percent

Miller is winning despite having the worst personal favorability numbers of the three candidates. Only 36 percent have a positive opinion of him while 59 percent view him in a negative light. McAdams is by far the most popular with 50% rating him favorably to only 30 percent with an unfavorable one. Voters aren't very enamored with Murkowski either, giving her a 37/53 approval rating. This analysis is definitely on target; I've seen a lot of this sentiment expressed in comments to various Anchorage Daily News stories about the race.

This is the third time since the August 24th primary that PPP has handicapped this race. On August 29th, PPP showed Miller with 38 percent, Murkowski with 34 percent, and McAdams with 22 percent, although at that time, Murkowski was presented as a prospective Libertarian. Then on October 12th, PPP showed Miller with 35 percent, Murkowski with 33 percent, and McAdams with 26 percent. So PPP shows a steady trend in favor of Miller with the passage of time, although McAdams is steadily moving up. It's possible Miller got a slight bump from the censoring of Dan Fagan, since that occurred before this poll was taken.

Demographic Subcategories: Crosstabs also indicate that Miller has more support among non-Whites than Whites, while Murkowski now has greater support among Whites. McAdams has equal support from both Whites and non-Whites. Miller does significantly better among men than women, while both Murkowski and McAdams do slightly better among women than men.

On the other hand, Dave Dittman's polls have shown a steady trend in favor of Lisa Murkowski. Other polls have been all over the map. So the only real constant is that the race has become a slobberknocker, and we will have to wait until November 2nd. Even then, it may turn into another fiasco like Franken-Coleman in Minnesota.

PPP also handicapped the governor's race, and found that Sean Parnell had 54 percent, while Ethan Berkowitz got 43 percent. Three percent are undecided.

Update November 1st: Two more polls released since this post, two different results. Metro Intergroup Communications, commissioned by the Murkowski campaign, polled 400 Alaskans statewide on October 30-31:

-- Lisa Murkowski: 36 percent
-- Joe Miller: 34 percent
-- Scott McAdams: 22 percent

Hays Research also polled 502 likely voters October 29-31 at the behest of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. It did not mention Lisa Murkowski by name, but simply stated "another candidate you have to write in." The results have been questioned because of the large percentage of undecideds.

-- Joe Miller: 27.1 percent
-- Scott McAdams: 25.9 percent
-- Another candidate you have to write in: 25.3 percent
-- Undecided: 21.7 percent

Results of previous U.S. Senate polls since August 24th:

-- Dave Dittman, October 29th
-- Hellenthal and Hays, October 28th
-- CNN/TIME, October 19th
-- Rasmussen, October 13th
-- Four other full polls discussed September 29th 

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