Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Public Policy Polling Shows A Virtual Dead Heat Between Joe Miller And Lisa Murkowski In Alaska U.S. Senate Race, But Scott McAdams Is Creeping Up

ADN Alaska Politics reports that the hard-left Daily Kos website commissioned a poll of 1,678 likely Alaska voters taken by Public Policy Polling from October 9-10, 2010, and the results show a virtual dead heat between official Republican U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller and write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski, with Democrat Scott McAdams third, although it appears McAdams has improved his numbers from four previous polls. It also measured the strength of the alternative Senate candidates, and further showed that Governor Sean Parnell and Congressman Don Young are leading handily in their respective races.

Here is the final composite result:

-- Joe Miller (R): 35 percent
-- Write-In Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 33 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 26 percent
-- Undecided: 4 percent
-- Fredrick Haase (Lib): 1 percent
-- Write-In Someone Else: 1 percent
-- Ted Gianoutsos (Ind): 0 percent
-- Tim Carter (Ind): 0 percent

The poll also shows that Joe Miller has the highest unfavorable rating, 58 percent, followed by Lisa Murkowski at 46 percent and Scott McAdams at 26 percent, although in McAdams' case, 30 percent are Not Sure. In a toss-up campaign, the candidate with the higher unfavorable rating generally ends up losing the election.

The composite was obtained by first testing Miller and McAdams against a generic Someone Else, then asking those who chose Write-In which candidate they would write in, if any. In the first cut, 35 percent said they would chooose Someone Else. In the second cut, 95 percent said they would write in Murkowski, while only 2 percent would write in someone else.

In the governor's race, Sean Parnell continues to hold a noticeable lead, although Ethan Berkowitz is closing the gap, which Ivan Moore had previously pegged at 18 percent. Parnell is stronger among men than women.

-- Sean Parnell (R): 51 percent
-- Ethan Berkowitz (D): 42 percent
-- Undecided: 7 percent

And in the U.S. House race, Congressman Don Young basically has Democrat Harry Crawford bagged and tagged. Ivan Moore had previously pegged this as a 33 percent lead for Young. Media attention upon this race was minimal. Don Young's strength is relatively uniform among all demographics.

-- Don Young (R): 58 percent
-- Harry Crawford (D): 36 percent
-- Undecided: 6 percent

Analysis: Don Young is a slam dunk; he's going back to Congress for two more years. Sean Parnell will probably pull his race out, although Ethan Berkowitz has clearly pulled within striking distance.

The wild card is the Senate race. With a virtual tie between Miller and Murkowski, it comes down to who makes the "fatal" mistake. And since this poll was taken, Joe Miller may have made the "fatal" mistake when he abruptly slammed the door to further questions about his personal life on October 11th. Miller is understandably frustrated about the disproportionate and distracting obsession some have with his personal life, particularly that of fully-blown Murkowski flak Andrew Halcro, but he must understand that when one runs for Federal elective office, one's life becomes an open book. That's the reality.

Lisa Murkowski, on the other hand, has overcome her humiliation over having been rejected in the Alaska Republican primary and is acting like the cat who swallowed the canary. She's toned down her sharp personal criticism of Miller, has focused more on the issues, and has even publicly agreed with Miller on some issues at times. In contrast, Miller is coming across as temperamental and struggling to control his campaign.

Joe Miller has three weeks to turn this around and take command of this race, but he must first take better command of his campaign. He did rather well in this debate, though.


  1. You may want to check out Dan Riehl's post: http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2010/10/murkowski-camp-no-comment-on-senators-alleged-history-of-cocaine-abuse.html

    The ice princess appears to not be so squeaky clean

  2. Thanks for the link. Although there's no mainstream media corroboration yet, Riehl's World View is one of Wikio's Top 50 political bloggers in the country, which gives him credibility. So I decided the information is post-worthy.