Thursday, October 14, 2010

October 13th Rasmussen Poll Shows Joe Miller Clinging To a One-Point Lead Over Lisa Murkowski In Alaska U.S. Senate Race

It appears that the "death by a thousand cuts" being inflicted upon Alaska Republican Senate candidate Joe Miller seems to be working. A new Rasmussen Poll shows Miller's lead over Lisa Murkowski, once at 15 points, has now shrunk to one point.

The poll of 500 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted on October 13th, 2010. As they did in their September 19th poll, Rasmussen asked respondents about a choice between Miller and McAdams without mentioning Murkowski, because this is the pre-printed choice voters will see when they enter the voting booth. However, when response options were offered to survey respondents, Murkowski’s name was mentioned. So even if the numbers themselves are questionable, the trend is valid because they used the same methodology both times. As for the numbers:

-- Joe Miller (R): 35 percent
-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 34 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 27 percent
-- Not Sure: 3 percent
-- Some Other Candidate: 1 percent

Compare this to their September 19th poll, which showed Miller with 42 percent, Murkowski with 27 percent, and McAdams with 25 percent. It appears the greatest voter migration is from Miller to Murkowski; only slow improvement is shown for McAdams.

Since the poll was taken on the same day as Jim Whitaker publicly accused Joe Miller of misusing office computers while employed as a Fairbanks Borough attorney, it is unlikely that this information affected individual response. It is also unlikely that allegations that Lisa Murkowski previously used cocaine, NOW DEBUNKED, were also considered by respondents.

Only paid Platinum Members can view Rasmussen's crosstabs and toplines. However, Poll Watch evidently has access to this information, and they disclose that 53 percent see Murkowski favorably compared to 46 percent who do not. By contrast, 49 percent see Miller unfavorably while 39 percent see him favorably, with 3 percent not sure. Perhaps more significantly, 45 percent say they see him "very" unfavorably, one of the highest such figures in this category they've ever seen in any Rasmussen poll.

Update: ADN Alaska Politics reports that Club For Growth also commissioned a poll of this race taken by National Research. Their poll of 400 likely voters, taken October 8-9, reveals a similar story:

-- Joe Miller (R): 33 percent
-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 31 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 27 percent

Other polls taken since the primary election ended include Craciun, Ivan Moore, and CNN/Time, all discussed HERE. A more recent poll by Public Policy Polling, is discussed HERE; its numbers are quite similar to Rasmussen.

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