Friday, October 29, 2010

Dave Dittman Poll Shows Lisa Murkowski With A 10-Point Lead Over Joe Miller In Alaska U.S. Senate Race

One of the most knowledgeable and respected pollsters in Alaska has finally weighed in on the U.S. Senate race, and his numbers don't look good for Joe Miller. Dave Dittman polled 421 Alaska voters from October 23-28, and this is what he found:

-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 37 percent
-- Joe Miller (R): 27 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 23 percent

But Dittman's chart actually shows this to be a persistent pattern since August. His numbers have put Murkowski in the driver's seat ever since the August 24th primary. This is different than the greater numerical mobility exhibited by some other polls. In fact, another pollster, Ivan Moore, actually considers the recent Hays poll to be suspect.

Dittman said that Alaska proves a challenge for national pollsters, primarily because rural Alaska is so difficult to poll. He says that most of the nationals use recorded polls, and all of those rural telephone pauses can screw with the numbers. Also, rural Alaskans tend to have a different, sometimes more literal, relationship with the English language.

Rival Alaska pollster Ivan Moore still thinks that a substantial number of voters might wait until the very last poll is released to make a decision about voting either for Murkowski or McAdams, depending upon whoever has the best chance of beating Miller. But while Moore's polling is usually in the ballpark, Dittman's polls generally prove more accurate.

And that means Daddy's Rich Girl may have just bought herself six more years in the U.S. Senate.

Results of previous polls since August 24th:

-- Hellenthal and Hays, October 28th
-- CNN/TIME, October 19th
-- Rasmussen, October 13th
-- Four other full polls discussed September 29th

No comments:

Post a Comment