Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Public Policy Polling Indicates Sarah Palin Takes A Back Seat To Mitt Romney In Alaska Presidential Polling

Sarah Palin's endorsement may have been instrumental in propelling Joe Miller to victory over Lisa Murkowski, but it doesn't mean that Alaska Republicans necessarily want to see her become President. In fact, Public Policy Polling's (PPP) August 27-28 poll of 805 Alaska Republican primary voters indicates that Palin takes a back seat to Mitt Romney in her own state.

Read the full six-page output along with crosstabs HERE. This is a subset of the same poll which showed Joe Miller leading Scott McAdams by 8 points. Here are the basic numbers:

-- Mitt Romney: 20 percent
-- Sarah Palin: 17 percent
-- Mike Huckabee: 17 percent
-- Newt Gingrich: 16 percent
-- Ron Paul: 10 percent
-- Undecided: 11 percent
-- Someone Else: 9 percent

The crosstabs reveal an interesting dichotomy. Although 51 percent of respondents have a Favorable opinion of Sarah Palin vs. only 40 percent Unfavorable, only 24 percent think she should run for President in 2012, while a whopping 62 percent say No. This implies that even many Palin partisans question her qualifications for the Presidency. This theme is echoed in PPP's analysis of the numbers.

However, Conservatives4Palin is criticizing the poll because they think PPP exaggerated Lisa Murkowski's strength several months ago. They don't buy the fact that Miller could have indeed come back from 40 points down in July to defeat Murkowski, so they believe the pollsters in general were under-representing Miller's strength. Of course, the alternative could be that Murkowski did have the support, but that it proved to be exceptionally shallow, in which case any credible alternative could have taken the support away from Murkowski. And that's what I think happened.

What I do know is that PPP's call of Miller being 8 points up on Scott McAdams is similar to Rasmussen's call of Miller being 6 points up on McAdams, and Rasmussen is a reputable pollster.

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