Thursday, September 02, 2010

Joe Miller's Got A Lot Of Work To Do; Rasmussen Shows Him Leading Democrat Scott McAdams By Only 6 Points

Joe Miller hasn't got long to bask in the success of his takedown of incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski. A Rasmussen poll just released on September 1st, 2010 shows that Democratic challenger Scott McAdams is well within striking distance. This follows closely in the wake of a Public Policy Polling poll which showed Miller leading McAdams by only 8 percentage points.

Rasmussen's survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted on August 31st, 2010, just hours after Murkowski conceded.

-- Joe Miller: 50 percent
-- Scott McAdams: 44 percent
-- Some other candidate: 4 percent
-- Undecided: 2 percent

This is only a 6-point lead despite the fact that Joe Miller has received far more media exposure than Scott McAdams. It explains why Rasmussen has moved the Alaska U.S. Senate race from Solid Republican to Leans Republican in their Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Rankings. Other findings of concern:

-- Joe Miller is viewed Very Unfavorably by 33 percent, while Scott McAdams is viewed Very Unfavorably by only 18 percent. On the other hand, more people view Miller Very Favorably than McAdams. These results might well reflect that fact that Miller's greater publicity means more people have formed hardened opinions about him one way or another.

-- McAdams has stronger support among Democrats than Miller does among Republicans. Although 90 percent of Democrats back McAdams, only 79 percent of Republicans support Miller. In addition, McAdams holds a 22-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Scott McAdams is not letting any grass grow under his feet, either. On September 1st, he made his cherry appearance on a national pundit show, subjecting himself to an inquisition by MSNBC's Rachel Maddow (the video is accessible HERE). Some of McAdams' liberal supporters weighed in on Mudflats; while one person said McAdams delivered very credible responses about his experience and his platform, another said McAdams seemed canned and flat, just repeating his talking points, and had difficulty adjusting to the six-second delay. Some panned his attire. But some are even hinting at getting Lisa Murkowski to endorse McAdams. This must be prevented. The Anchorage Daily News also published a good article about McAdams HERE; Alaska Dispatch has a better article HERE.

Joe Miller has clearly established his base in Greater Fairbanks and the Mat-Su, as shown on these maps. He probably will make no progress in Bush Alaska, and can expect only marginal progress in Southeast Alaska. This means he must concentrate on Anchorage -- particularly South Anchorage, which is the more conservative part of town. If Joe Miller can keep his base and deliver South Anchorage, he'll win on November 2nd.


  1. I was selected to participate in a polictical survey. This was the day before Joe Miller was announced as the winner. The survey kepted asking about the same four people being on the senate ballot but with differnt party affilications. With all the talk of Murkowski running independant or libertarian, that was no surprise. The real surprise was who the four people were, Scott McAdams, Joel Miller, Lisa Murkowski, and Tony Knowles. I couldn't figure out why they kept putting Tony on the ballot or what that was saying.

  2. Since Public Policy Polling did not ask about Tony Knowles, then the survey you participated in was either the Dave Dittman poll supposedly commissioned by Andrew Halcro, or it was something different altogether. Halcro has not reported back on the Dittman poll yet.

  3. I sure hope Miller fails...his one goal alone should scare the heck out of Americans who don't plan on being dead when they finish working.

    His plan to eliminate or privatize a system that has worked well for 75 years and is not in any real trouble is scary to say the least. I am not sure how elderly homeless would fare in the Arctic winters.

    Any private pension could evaporate in a recession like this destroying a life time of saving for retirement.