There is one common denominator, though. Democratic candidate Scott McAdams is a distant last in each poll. Results of each of the five polls presented after the jump
On September 29th, 2010, Alaska Dispatch informs us that Craciun Research, operated by Anchorage resident Jean Craciun, polled 300 voters from Sept. 24-25 and found Lisa Murkowski on top. Cracium paid for the poll herself. Here are the numbers (note that I use the term RINO merely to distinguish Murkowski from the official Republican nominee, Joe Miller; it's not intended to be pejorative):
-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 41 percent
-- Joe Miller (R): 30 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 19 percent
Other candidates in the U.S. Senate race include Fredrick Haase (Libertarian), Ted Gianoutsos (Ind.), Tim Carter (Ind.), and Sid Hill (Democrat write-in)
Craciun insists her numbers are more accurate than her competitors because instead of merely using computers that randomly dial residents and connect with people who are likely voters, her people look at historical voting records which differ markedly throughout the state and align the numbers and demographics of those surveyed to match district-by-district.
Since this post was first published, the Anchorage Press has reported the results of a poll of 750 adults conducted by Ivan Moore from Sept. 23-27. Full poll results available HERE. The U.S. Senate poll was conducted in two parts:
(1). Miller vs. McAdams, with no mention of Murkowski by pollster, although if the respondent volunteered Murkowski, the response would be recorded:
-- Joe Miller (R): 43 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 28 percent
-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 18 percent
(2). The 82 percent (573 respondents) who didn't volunteer Murkowski's name were asked a follow-up question: “As you may have heard, Lisa Murkowski is running a write-in campaign for U.S. Senate. Knowing this, would your vote for U.S. Senate remain the same, or would you write in Lisa Murkowski?” The results:
-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 43 percent
-- Joe Miller (R): 36 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 14 percent
The Anchorage Daily News is a bit confused by this. They ask if it means that Murkowski get 18 percent or 43.5 percent of the vote? While Ivan Moore is considered the second most accurate pollster in Alaska, his own personal bias against Miller is revealed in the statement "A Judgment Day of sorts is coming for Mr. Miller and it should be mighty entertaining to watch."
Anchorage pollster Dave Dittman has also polled the race, and while he wouldn't release the details, he says Murkowski leads Miller by two percentage points in his poll. Dittman is customarily the most accurate pollster in Alaska.
Also on September 29th, the results of a Opinion Research poll commissioned by CNN/Time was released. Taken between Sept. 24-28, it queried 1,528 adults, including 927 likely Alaskan voters, asking the following question: "If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?" Full results available HERE:
-- Joe Miller (R): 38 percent
-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 36 percent
-- Scott McAdams: (D): 22 percent
Time also revealed that this poll showed a racial split developing. Murkowski appears to be polling best amongst non-Whites, 49 percent to Miller's 24 percent, which is believed to reflect the strength of her support amongst Alaska Natives, while Miller is winning the White vote, 42 percent to 33 percent. This despite the fact that unlike Murkowski, Joe Miller hasn't introduced race into the campaign. Additional discussion of this poll available on CNN Political Ticker, the Anchorage Daily News, and The Hill and Time.
Of course, all these polls were preceded by a Rasmussen poll which told a different story and which I considered questionable. Their survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted on September 19, 2010.
-- Joe Miller (R): 42 percent
-- Lisa Murkowski (RINO): 27 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 25 percent
Perhaps it was on the level, because since that time, the Miller campaign has been buffeted by two unfavorable revelations; first, that Joe Miller had obtained low-income hunting and fishing licenses in 1994 despite having purchased a house assessed at $88,700 at the time, and second, that Joe Miller is late in filing required financial disclosure forms with the Senate Records Office and Ethics Committee. In addition, the Murkowski campaign was likely buttressed by the fact that Senate Republicans ultimately chose not to strip her of her seniority. The combined effect of all these actions may be eroding support for Joe Miller.
However, Craciun's polling results have not always been accurate, either. So I believe the results by Dave Dittman and CNN/Time and more representative, and at this point, it's a tossup between Lisa Murkowski and Joe Miller.