Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Remote Live-Blogging The 2010 Alaska Primary Election; Joe Miller On The Verge Of A Monumental Upset

Using the various media resources available, I have been remotely live-blogging the 2010 Alaska Primary Election. I will post significant updates as they occur. Coverage will be limited to the leading candidates for the designated races.

Real-Time Election Results:
-- Alaska Division of Elections portal
-- Anchorage Daily News
-- KTUU Channel 2

Other Media Reports:
-- "Miller on verge of toppling Murkowski", Anchorage Daily News
-- "Palin a central figure in tight Alaska Senate race", Anchorage Daily News
-- "Murkowski: wait until the absentees are counted before writing her off", ADN Alaska Politics
-- "Murkowski: 'It ain't over yet'", Alaska Dispatch
-- "Murkowski insider: considering 3rd-party run if Miller wins GOP nod", Alaska Dispatch
-- "Young wins GOP House race by big margin", Anchorage Daily News
-- "Early vote shows Measure 2 winning, Measure 1 losing", Anchorage Daily News
-- "Treadwell, Benson win lieutenant governor races", Anchorage Daily News
-- Anchorage Daily News gallery of 37 photos HERE.
-- Alaska Dispatch photo gallery HERE.
-- "Miller, Murkowski in tight race; Parnell wins GOP nod; three-way tie in House District 12", Fairbanks Daily News-Miner
-- Anchorage Daily News Twitter stream
-- Mudflats also live-blogging from the political left.

Who I voted for:
-- U.S. Senate: Lisa Murkowski
-- U.S. House: Sheldon Fisher
-- Governor: Ralph Samuels
-- Lt. Gov: Eddie Burke
-- Ballot Measure One: No
-- Ballot Measure Two: Yes

Seventh and Final Update: With all 438 precincts counted, Joe Miller now has 50.9 percent, while Lisa Murkowski has 49.1 percent. Now awaiting absentee ballots.

Sixth Update 2:20 P.M: Voter turnout now estimated to be at 27.5 percent. With 429 of 438 precincts reporting, Joe Miller has 51.09 percent while Lisa Murkowski has 48.91 percent. The gap has now closed to around 2.2 percent. However, there remain 16,000 absentee ballots to be counted. Only 7,600 of them have been received so far. The first count of absentees will be on Tuesday August 31st, and there will be two subsequent counts on September 3rd and September 8th. In addition, it appears the Murkowski campaign is floating a trial balloon about a possible third-party run for Murkowski; this would be a BAD, BAD idea.

Fifth Update 3:05 A.M: Previous reporting was in error; vote-counting is continuing. With 369 of 438 precincts now reporting, Joe Miller has 51.45 percent while Lisa Murkowski has 48.55 percent. The gap has closed to 2.9 percent. But the rural districts now being tallied are very thinly-populated, so Joe Miller may be on the verge of one of the greatest comeback victories and political upsets in Alaska history. Ethan Berkowitz has increased his lead over Hollis French to 8.5 percent, so it looks like he can be crowned the Democratic gubernatorial nominee.

Fourth Update 12:07 A.M: With 288 of 438 precincts now counted, Joe Miller maintains a 3.4 percent lead of Lisa Murkowski. Ethan Berkowitz is also maintaining a seven-point lead over Hollis French. Counting has now stopped at this point as of 12;30 A.M. and will not resume until the morning.

Third Update 10:45 P.M: Limited to races which are still somewhat contested. With 218 of 438 precincts counted, we are at the halfway point. Joe Miller's lead, which had contracted to 1.5 percent after the second update, is now back up to 3.7 percent. However, Fred Dyson warned the crowd at Election Central that the rural and coastal precincts where Miller did not poll well have not come in yet. Murkowski could still pull it out.

U.S. Senate:
-- Joe Miller (R) 51.84%
-- Lisa Murkowski (R) 48.16%

Governor Republican:
-- Sean R. Parnell (R) 50.18%
-- Bill Walker (R) 33.86%
-- Ralph Samuels (R) 13.45%

Governor Democrat:
-- Ethan A. Berkowitz (D) 48.47%
-- Hollis S. French (D) 41.04%

Lieutenant Governor Republican:
-- Mead Treadwell (R) 53.44%
-- Jay Ramras (R) 31.72%
-- Eddie Burke (R) 12.49%

Ballot Measure 1: Restrict political contributions
-- NO 62.80%
-- YES 37.20%

Ballot Measure 2: Abortion for minor requires parental notice or consent
-- YES 54.80%
-- NO 45.20%

Second Update 9:47 P.M: With 146 precincts counted, Joe Miller lengthens his lead to 2.4 percent. Anchorage Daily News still can't bring itself to take Miller seriously; in this article, they refer to him as a "self-styled" constitutional conservative.

First Update 9:25 P.M: With 119 of 438 precincts counted, we can project Don Young, Diane Benson, and Scott McAdams to be winners. Here are the numbers so far:

U.S. Senate:
-- Joe Miller (R) 50.78%
-- Lisa Murkowski (R) 49.22%

U.S. House:
-- Don Young (R) 69.74%
-- Sheldon Fisher (R) 24.35%

Governor Republican:
-- Sean R. Parnell (R) 48.12%
-- Bill Walker (R) 35.19%
-- Ralph Samuels (R) 14.27%

Governor Democrat:
-- Ethan A. Berkowitz (D) 47.93%
-- Hollis S. French (D) 41.60%

Lieutenant Governor Republican:
-- Mead Treadwell (R) 53.35%
-- Jay Ramras (R) 31.98%
-- Eddie Burke (R) 12.49%

Lieutenant Governor Democrat:
-- Diane E. Benson (D) 65.12%
-- J. J. "Jack" Powers (D) 20.13%

Ballot Measure 1: Restrict political contributions
-- NO 62.53%
-- YES 37.47%

Ballot Measure 2: Abortion for minor requires parental notice or consent
-- YES 54.77%
-- NO 45.23%


  1. Miller, Walker, Young, Yes, Yes - my votes

    turned out to be a decent primary

  2. As much as I love your web page, I am awfully glad that (at least so far) you were wrong on Joe Miller.

  3. I won't be broken-hearted if Joe Miller is declared the winner; I'll support him in the general election. But the opposition's going to try to do to him what they did to Sarah Palin. Watch the Shannyn Moore-Celtic Diva hate machine crank up into high gear if Miller is the winner.