Sunday, August 29, 2010

Public Policy Polling August 2010 Poll Reveals Joe Miller Would Edge Lisa Murkowski And Thump Scott McAdams In Three-Way U.S. Senate Race

A poll of 1,306 Alaskans taken August 27-28 and just released on August 29th, 2010 by Public Policy Polling (PPP) reveals that if Lisa Murkowski was to launch a third-party campaign as a Libertarian, she would be edged out by Joe Miller, although she would defeat Scott McAdams. It also reveals that in two-way contests, Murkowski would crush McAdams while Miller would defeat McAdams by a narrower margin. Note that this is NOT the poll that Andrew Halcro is paying for; Halcro is commissioning a similar but much simpler poll through Dittman Research.

Read the full 15-page poll results with crosstabs HERE.

The three-way result:

-- Joe Miller (R): 38 percent
-- Lisa Murkowski (Lib): 34 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 22 percent

The two-way results (assuming Murkowski is the Republican nominee):

-- Lisa Murkowski (R): 60 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 28 percent

-- Joe Miller (R): 47 percent
-- Scott McAdams (D): 39 percent

Other noteworthy results:

-- Joe Miller has a 52 percent Unfavorable rating
-- 53 percent of respondents disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance
-- 50 percent of respondents disapprove of Mark Begich's job performance
-- 50 percent of respondents approve of Lisa Murkowski's job performance

PPP intends to release more information over the next few days, to include an 'exit poll' looking at the factors that drove Miller's surprise victory, to show how Alaskans feel about Sarah Palin and a potential White House bid, and numbers on Alaska's races for Governor and House. Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American, Progressive, and Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Notwithstanding, they have a reputation for accuracy; following the 2008 U.S. presidential election, an analysis by The Wall Street Journal showed PPP's swing-state polling was the second most accurate projection, missing the average margin of victory by only +/-1.04 percentage points.

Update September 3rd: The results of Halcro's Dittman poll are now available. The poll of 383 people shows Murkowski with 37 percent, Miller with 31 percent and McAdams with 19 percent, with 13 percent undecided.

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