Thursday, May 13, 2010

May 6th Rasmussen Poll Shows Alaska Incumbent Governor Sean Parnell Well Ahead Of Opponents, But Ethan Berkowitz The Strongest Democrat

Alaska Dispatch has wised us up to a Rasmussen Poll of 500 likely voters in Alaska conducted on May 6th, 2010 to determine the strength of the leading gubernatorial candidates. Basically, it shows three trends: First, Sean Parnell is the strongest Republican candidate; second, Ethan Berkowitz is the strongest Democratic candidate; and third, Sean Parnell would kick everybody's asses if the election was held today.

-- Parnell vs. Berkowitz: Parnell 58 percent, Berkowitz 30 percent
-- Parnell vs. Hollis French: Parnell 62 percent, French 24 percent
-- Parnell vs. Bob Poe: Parnell 62 percent, Poe 21 percent

Bob Poe's primary problem remains name recognition. Because he's not a current legislator nor a prior candidate, he's not been considered as newsworthy, although an interview in the Alaska Star this week shows he's working on that problem. Informed voters consider him the most tolerable Democrat, sort of like Tony Knowles version 2.0. Poe may eventually prove to be a stronger candidate than Hollis French, since French has a stratospherically high 31 percent Very Unfavorably rating.

The poll also measures one of the other Republican challengers, Ralph Samuels, against the three Democrats, and shows that Samuels could also beat all three, albeit by narrower margins. In particular, Samuels would beat Berkowitz by only seven percentage points. This shows that Parnell remains a stronger Republican candidate than Samuels. Parnell has distanced himself from Sarah Palin since taking over, but has resisted the temptation to throw her under the bus. Furthermore, Parnell's "plain vanilla" persona is still perceived as a welcome contrast from the excessively spicy drama of the Palin Administration. Seventy percent of Alaska voters currently approve of Parnell’s performance as governor, while only 29 percent disapprove of the job he is doing.

Inexplicably, Rasmussen chose not to measure the strength of the third prominent Republican candidate in the race, Bill Walker. Walker has been in the race long enough to merit such consideration, and the Alaska media accord him that respect. Walker may end up finishing third in the August 24th primary, but it could be a strong third. As a matter of fact, Walker and Samuels may split the anti-AGIA vote, paving the way for a Parnell victory.

Other candidates in the gubernatorial race include Republicans Gerald Heikes, Sam Little and Merica Hlatcu, as well as Libertarian William S. "Billy" Toien and Alaskan Independence Party candidate Donald Wright. Alaska Division of Elections list HERE.

2 comments:

  1. Berkowitz The Strongest Democrat" fuck that we don't need more jews in political office, we need white folks!

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  2. so, anonymous, why aren't you smart enough to run?
    and don't give me any excuses because where there is a will there is a way. although i highly doubt anyone with a real brain would vote for you. look at carl he can't get voted in either.

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