Friday, February 27, 2009

Dave Dittman Poll Shows Dan Sullivan Leading Anchorage Mayoral Race With 23 Percent, But Walt Monegan Tied For Second

The Anchorage Daily News' Alaska Politics blog has posted the results of a new Dave Dittman poll about the Anchorage mayoral race, and, to no one's surprise, Dan Sullivan is leading the pack by a noticeable margin. Also to no one's surprise, it looks like the top three politically left-of-center candidates, Matt Claman, Sheila Selkregg, and Eric Croft, are scrapping over the same general constituency, diluting their individual strengths.

The mild shock to me though is Walt Monegan's position. He's actually tied for second, while the other ex-cop in the race, Paul Honeman, is far back despite an earlier start to his campaign and an aggressive advertising strategy. Honeman monitors some of the local blogs and is quick to provide input. But an Anchorage Press profile on Monegan, published on February 26th (too late to impact Dittman's poll), shows Monegan offers an unusual blend of social liberalism and fiscal conservatism. One of Monegan's more innovative ideas, which would first require a change in state law, is to set up different tiers of public safety officers based on their skill level, so sworn officers of a certain skill set could write traffic tickets or work as school resource officers, without carrying a gun.

Anyway, here are the specific numbers from Dittman's February 18th survey, based upon a sample size of 376 registered voters and a margin of error of three percent:

-- Dan Sullivan: 23 percent
-- Walt Monegan: 10 percent
-- Matt Claman: 10 percent
-- Sheila Selkregg: 10 percent
-- Eric Croft: 8 percent
-- Paul Honeman: 3 percent
-- A different candidate: 2 percent
-- Don't know: 34 percent

Dittman was not commissioned by any candidate to take this poll, although he dislcosed that he’s donated some money to Dan Sullivan and Walt Monegan.

A previous mayoral poll by Lake Research, discussed on February 6th, showed Dan Sullivan leading Eric Croft by 21 percent to 18 percent. However, Lake Research is the official pollster of the Croft campaign. In addition, different pollsters use different methodologies. Perhaps Croft ought to get his money back from Lake Research for over-representing his strength, because I'm not about to believe that Eric Croft lost 10 percentage points in just three weeks.

On February 25th, Alaska Dispatch reported on another Dittman poll which showed Sarah Palin with a 56 percent approval rating to a 37 percent disapproval rating in Anchorage. It is unclear whether this was a completely separate poll, or part of the current poll. It is noteworthy that a bunch of Palinbots swarmed the comments section of the Dispatch story to proclaim their unswerving allegiance to The Great Helmslady.

But from the Dittman mayoral poll, we can draw some conclusions:

(1). The five principals in the race are Sullivan, Monegan, Claman, Selkregg, and Croft.

(2). No one will get the 45 percent or more necessary to avoid a runoff. Consequently, there will be a runoff.

(3). Dan Sullivan is guaranteed to be one of the candidates in the runoff. Sullivan has raised twice as much money as the other candidates.

For more information on the candidates and upcoming candidate forums:

-- List of Anchorage 2009 Municipal Candidate Forums
-- List of Anchorage 2009 Mayoral Candidates
-- List of Anchorage 2009 School Board Candidates


  1. Walt Monegan is a well-credentialled candidate, having already managed large staffs and budgets in good times and bad - not to mention his reputation for integrity.

    It's no surprise he is popular with voters.


  2. While I mean no disrespect to Dave Dittman, or any pollster I take note of some oddities. First - I find odd that the two persons Mr. Dittman has donated to - just happen to be numbers 1 and 2 in the poll.

    Second - the ONLY two candidates that can offer any challnege to Mr. Sullivan - the primary Republican in the race - is the top Democrat - Croft and Myself as the only declared fiscal conservative.

    My last statement on the matter is this. According to Mr. Dittman and many other polls conducted in the last election mere months ago - assured Alaska of Congressman Berkowitz by a landslide - and that Ted Stevens would lose big in the Senate.

    My resolve is the stronger due to the data that I have - and the outpouring of support from Anchorage.

    The only Poll that counts is on April 7th - and liklely May 5th.

    Please do NOT allow yourselves to be told who is the best candidate Anchorage voters. Do your research on each candidate and invest well. We the Anchorage voters deserve EXACTLY the local government that we are willing to invest in - or not! Thanks for your support.

    Paul Honeman

  3. Paul, I do not know you except for you appearances on the local news with the police dept. I would like a forum in which to meet and ask questions. Do you support eduction? Do you support clean sidewalks? Do you support medical for all? Do you support equal treatment for all citizens? Thanks I will look forward to your reply.

  4. I am not voting for Dan Sullivan. I did not like his dad's politics, and it appears that he is biased and not willing to accept all as equals. He is prejudiced.

  5. I am interested in Walt. He may be better than other candidates. I need to talk to him or read the crap on the internet

  6. I was not impressedd with lydia selkregs politics and am doubtful of her relative.