Sunday, December 21, 2008

Research 2000 Poll Projects Sarah Palin To Beat Lisa Murkowski 55-31 Percent In 2010 U.S. Senate Race; KTUU Poll Projects The Opposite

Note: See January 6th, 2009 post on subsequent Dittman poll HERE.

The Anchorage Daily News' Alaska Politics blog is reporting that the hard-left Daily Kos website commissioned Research 2000 to poll 600 Alaskans during the period December 15-17 about prospective 2010 legislative races in the state. And Research 2000 found that respondents would pick Governor Sarah Palin over incumbent U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski by almost a two-to-one margin. Note that although Daily Kos is hard left, Research 2000 polls have proven to be representative in the past.

Specifically, Research 2000 found out that Sarah Palin would crush Lisa Murkowski by a 55 percent to 31 percent margin if the election was held today. Additional demographic breakdowns are posted on Daily Kos. However, this varies significantly from a KTUU Channel 2 "unscientific" poll conducted on December 2nd, when respondents said they would pick Senator Murkowski over Governor Palin by a 58 percent to 42 percent margin. But even though KTUU's poll is "unscientific", a respondent can only vote once, so it is not necessarily unrepresentative.

So while the Research 2000 poll should be considered more authoritative than the KTUU poll, it should not be considered inerrant. There has been very little complaint about Lisa Murkowski's politics or performance; indeed, she won kudos for voting against the proposed bailout of the auto industry. Her explanation of why she voted against the bailout is posted on The Alaska Standard. Consequently, I believe Palin would prevail against Murkowski, but not by nearly as much. And Murkowski has plenty of time to overhaul the Princess.

Daily Kos also dusted off the superannuated Democrat Tony Knowles and handicapped a potential gubernatorial horse race between him and Sarah Palin, and found that Palin would squash him 55 percent to 38 percent. Why Daily Kos insists on dusting off Knowles is beyond me; he's not a bad guy and he certainly knows more about resource issues than Palin, but he's lost his last two elections, and I sense no enthusiasm or passion for him.

Daily Kos also took a look at the prospective Republican primary race for Alaska's U.S. House seat in 2010, and projected these results based on the poll:

Don Young: 33 percent
Sean Parnell: 27 percent
John Harris: 11 percent
Undecided: 29 percent

John Harris, who is from Valdez, represents District 12 in the Alaska State House. He was just recently the House Speaker, and is considered capable and knowledgeable. Harris earlier declared his interest in running either for governor or the U.S. House in 2010, but says he won't run against either Don Young or Sarah Palin.

To wrap things up, the Daily Kos author wrote that ..."people don't like their crooked incumbent, but they'll still vote for the sunofabitch. Don't ask me to explain it". How about if I explain it? First, Don Young is neither convicted nor indicted. Second, we suspected that we might lose Ted Stevens, and we didn't want to lose two incumbents. And finally, Don Young has delivered. The latter counts most of all.

To paraphrase FDR, Don Young may be a "sunofabitch", but at least he's OUR "sunofabitch".

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