Monday, November 03, 2008

New Hays Research Poll Shows Alaskans Still Want To Send Mark Begich And Ethan Berkowitz To Congress, But McCain Only Leads Obama By 2.7 Points

Update 4:16 P.M. Alaska time: Shortly after publishing this post, Alaska's premier pollster Dave Dittman called in to KFQD conservative shock-jock Dan Fagan's show to report the results of his own poll, conducted Oct 31-Nov 2. This is the first poll where he reached out more to cell-phone users, who tend to be a younger demographic. Results posted in green in the respective categories below.

Anchorage-based Hays Research Group, whose pollsters have been uncharacteristically silent during the latter part of the election campaign, sounded off on November 3rd, 2008 with a last minute pulse-taking of Alaskan opinion, and found that Alaskans are still committed to change. A majority want to send Mark Begich to the U.S. Senate and Ethan Berkowitz to the U.,S. House. The full poll results can be read HERE, and are also discussed on the Anchorage Daily News' Alaska Politics blog.

One slight wrinkle - Hays asked Undecideds which way they are leaning:

U.S. Senate:
- Mark Begich (D): 48.3 percent
- Ted Stevens (R): 40.0 percent
- Undecided (Lean Stevens): 2.0 percent
- Undecided (Lean Begich): 1.0 percent
- Other Candidate: 1.7 percent
- Don't Know / Refused: 7.1 percent

Dave Dittman reports Mark Begich up by 47-43 over Ted Stevens. He sees a distinct swing towards Stevens.

A Rasmussen poll released on October 29th, just after Ted Stevens' conviction, showed a sudden change to an 8-point lead for Begich. So Stevens seems to have bottomed out, and his core has consolidated.

U.S. House:
- Ethan Berkowitz (D): 48.3 percent
- Don Young (R): 40.8 percent
- Undecided (Lean Young): 2.2 percent
- Undecided (Lean Berkowitz): 1.0 percent
- Other Candidate: 1.2 percent
- Don't Know / Refused: 6.6 percent

Dave Dittman reports Ethan Berkowitz up by 48-43 over Don Young.

But the big surprise - McCain's large lead in the state may have significantly eroded. While the most recent Rasmussen poll, released on October 29th, showed McCain with a 16-point lead, Hays calls it MUCH closer:

- McCain/Palin (R): 46.6 percent
- Obama/Biden (D): 43.9 percent
- Undecided (Lean McCain): 1.7 percent
- Undecided (Lean Obama): 0.7 percent
- Other Candidate: 2.0 percent
- Don't Know / Refused: 5.1 percent

Dave Dittman reports McCain/Palin up by 52-41 over Obama/Biden.

However, if you factor in the 4.9 percent margin of error, adding it to McCain's total and subtracting it from Obama's total, that would extend McCain's margin back out to 12.5 percentage points, somewhat more consistent with the results of other polls. Nevertheless, the numbers clearly show a bump in Obama's favor, although McCain will still take the state. Hays' numbers have always been reliable and realistic in the past, so I'm reluctant to completely discount them., which aggregates recently available public polls, calculates an aggregate 55.7 percent to 41.4 percent McCain lead in Alaska, while Real Clear Politics aggregates it to a 56 percent to 40.7 percent McCain lead.

This survey was conducted among households with at least one member who has voted in at least 2 of the last 4 state or local elections within the State of Alaska. The survey was fielded on November 2nd, 2008. 400 respondents were contacted by telephone for the survey. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9% with a 95% confidence interval.

Previous Hays Research polls can be viewed HERE. Click HERE for more information about Alaska candidates for Federal office and HERE for more information on Alaska candidates for state office.

No comments:

Post a Comment