Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Troopergate Sending Sarah Palin's Alaska Popularity Ratings South; Ivan Moore September 22nd Poll Pegs Palin At 68 Percent, Her Lowest Ever

Update September 25th: Ivan Moore has released more of these poll results incrementally. Results of Troopergate part of the poll discussed separately HERE.

Alaska's second leading pollster has released the results of his latest Sarah Palin poll, and they show the Governor's popularity ratings now sliding noticeably "southward". The full results can be seen at the Anchorage Daily News' Alaska Politics blog. Late report with video from KTUU Channel 2.

The poll, conducted among 500 likely Alaskan voters from September 20th through 22nd, shows that Governor Palin enjoys only a 68 percent approval rating, which is her lowest rating since becoming governor. Republican and conservative approval was only marginally affected; they remain at 93 percent and 88 percent respectively. But Palin has taken her greatest hits among Democrats and liberals (who Moore refers to as "progressives"), at 36 percent and 23 percent respectively.

To understand why Governor Palin's ratings are skidding, Ivan Moore has thoughtfully provided a trend analysis as well. Here are the dates and results of his previous polls:

January 8th: 82 percent
July 22nd: 76 percent
July 31st: 78 percent
August 12th: 80 percent
September 2nd: 82 percent
September 22nd: 68 percent

Let's compare that progression with the Troopergate sequence:

- July 11th: Governor Palin abruptly fires Walt Monegan, later explains it to be out of a desire to take Public Safety in a "new direction" with "new energy".

- July 21st: New Public Safety Commissioner Chuck Kopp unmasked as a "sexual harasser". July 22nd poll shows Palin drop to 76 percent.

- July 25th: Kopp resigns; July 31st poll up slightly to 78 percent.

- August 13th: Gov. Palin finally fesses up the three reasons why she fired Monegan; trooper recruiting, alcohol issues, and budget disputes. Says "hold me accountable". August 12th poll up slightly to 80 percent.

- September 13th: Monster anti-Palin rally outside Loussac Library, 1500 show up. September 15th: McCain-Palin campaign dumps all over Monegan; Truth Squad shows up to run interference. Talis Colberg then refuses to allow subpoenaed officials to testify to Judiciary Committee. September 22nd poll down to 68 percent, with major losses among lefties.

Bottom line: Other issues, such as Palin's social conservatism, were merely anecdotal until Troopergate revealed a clear cut pattern of abuse of power and evasion. Then the ratings began to skid. Troopergate is the problem. And Troopergate will REMAIN the problem until Governor Palin takes charge and comes clean. This means cooperating with the public Branchflower investigation, not having her own privately-controlled secret dog-and-pony show via the Personnel Board.

Alaska Dispatch also believes Troopergate bears the greatest responsibility for the slide in Palin's ratings, although they place more emphasis on the revelations regarding Trooper Mike Wooten. While the Wooten issue is not insignificant, I sense more discontent over Palin's changing stories and her stonewalling. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has also blogged on this story.

And don't forget, index of all Anchorage Daily News Troopergate stories HERE.

Palin opponents are not planning to relax the pressure any time soon. Shannyn Moore, a progressive activist who once hosted a talk show on KUDO 1080AM, has announced a "Hold Palin Accountable Rally" to take place on the Delaney Park Strip at the Veterans Memorial on 9th and I Streets on Saturday September 27th from 12 Noon to 2 P.M.


  1. I think Sarah Palin will have some kind of "family emergency" in the next few days and drop out of the race. McCain will probably chose Mitt Romney. What a train wreck the Repugnant Party has become.

  2. Interesting prognosis, Anonymous. Quite frankly, that wouldn't surprise me.

    There's also similar scuttlebutt about Joe Biden dropping out in favor of Hillary. I wonder what the effects would be if BOTH occurred. Who would benefit more? Probably Obama.

    The Republican Party became a train wreck when it stopped being Republican and chose "empire" over "republic".

  3. anonymous? is that you Hal Turner?

    sounds like something he would dream up.

  4. Take a look at this poll too: "Alaskans approve strongly of the job she has done as governor and yet recognize that Biden has more background and experience and would be better equipped to handle an international crisis": or