Friday, August 01, 2008

New Ivan Moore Poll Shows Ted Stevens Would Clobber Republican Opponents, But In Turn Would Be Clobbered By Mark Begich

The results of a new Ivan Moore poll have been posted on the Anchorage Daily News' Alaska Politics blog and on Real Clear Politics on August 1st, 2008, and it shows Ted Stevens maintaining a huge lead over his Republican primary challengers in spite of the indictment. On th other hand, the poll also shows that if the general election were held now, Democrat Mark Begich would clobber Ted Stevens.

Moore polled 413 registered voters from "supervoting" households (meaning at least one person in the household voted in at least two of the past four statewide elections) from July 30-31, and here are the numbers:

Republican Primary:

Ted Stevens: 58.9 percent
Dave Cuddy: 19.0 percent
Undecided: 20.2 percent
Other Republicans: 1.8 percent

Analysis: While Ted Stevens may be slipping a bit among Republicans, the support isn't necessarily migrating to another Republican, although Cuddy has a power base. Many Republicans are taking a wait-and-see attitude. It also looks like the campaign of the noisy, obnoxious Vic Vickers is getting virtually no traction. This is also no surprise; Vickers is a Florida carpetbagger who wants to spend $750,000 telling Alaskans nothing more than "Ted Stevens sucks". A one-trick pony.

General Election (if it was held today):

Mark Begich (D): 56.0 percent
Ted Stevens (R): 35.3 percent
Undecided: 5.4 percent
Other candidates: 3.3 percent

Click HERE to find out about all Alaska candidates for Federal office.

Ivan Moore also explained that the Begich lead was only 8.5 percent two weeks ago, so the indictment clearly has had a deleterious effect on Stevens. Moore's results are in the ballpark with the July 30th Rasmussen results, which showed Begich leading Stevens by a 50-37 margin. A July 17th Rasmussen poll, taken well before the indictment, showed Begich leading Stevens by nine points.

Overall, the indication is that while Ted Stevens still retains his fundamental base among Republicans, his support among independents and crossover Democrats is vanishing. He cannot defeat Mark Begich without combining Republican support with independent support, at the very least.

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