Friday, August 15, 2008

Ivan Moore Releases Poll Results Of Alaska Congressional Races, And It's Looking Like Berkowitz Vs. Young And Begich Vs. Stevens In November 2008

On August 14th, 2008, the Anchorage Press published the results of Ivan Moore's latest poll. And it looks like the marquee players will win their respective primaries on August 26th and go on to the finals in November's general election. KTUU has now posted the raw data from Ivan Moore HERE.

The marquee players are Ethan Berkowitz and Mark Begich on the Democratic side, and Don Young and Ted Stevens on the Republican side. A complete list of all Alaska candidates for Federal office, along with links to their campaign websites where applicable, can be found HERE. Here are the raw numbers:

U.S. House Primary Combined Ballot (the candidates for all parties except Republicans will appear on this ballot on August 26th):

- Ethan Berkowitz (D): 58.0 percent
- Diane Benson (D): 24.1 percent
- Don Wright (AIP): 2.9 percent
- Undecided: 15.0 percent

This one's over. Berkowitz is in. Gutsy effort by Diane Benson, but Alaska Democrats want more than just "hope" and "change". They want results, and Berkowitz has a track record of delivering results.

Ivan Moore didn't bother polling the Democratic Senate race. Last time he checked in mid-July, he found that Begich was just under 80 percent and no one else had even cracked double digits, Ray Metcalfe included. Too bad; Metcalfe has guts, but even I knew he couldn't beat Begich.

U.S. House Primary Republican Ballot (Republican primary is a closed primary):

- Don Young: 45.9 percent
- Sean Parnell: 40.4 percent
- Gabrielle LeDoux: 7.4 percent
- Undecided: 6.2 percent

These results are consistent with other polls. Sean Parnell's lackluster performance at the KTUU debate hasn't given Don Young a bump, but has held Parnell back. And Parnell is now flip-flopping on earmarks; he was against them but now he's for them. If Don Young wasn't under Federal investigation, he'd be leading by 15 percentage points. Gabrielle LeDoux continues to struggle with a single-digit percentage. I think Young will win.

U.S. Senate Primary Republican Ballot:

- Ted Stevens: 62.7 percent
- Dave Cuddy: 20.4 percent
- Vic Vickers: 6.6 percent
- Other: 2.9 percent
- Undecided: 7.4 percent

People are rallying around Ted Stevens, even though he's been indicted. Many people believe the charges are artificial (not "bogus", but irrelevant, being primarily sloppy bookkeeping). They believe his 40 years of U.S. Senate service to Alaska far outweigh these technicalities. Dave Cuddy has a great paleoconservative platform, but never really set anyone on fire. Florida carpetbagger Vic Vickers was just the opposite; a loud, boorish, overbearing blowhard who spewed fire and brimstone against Ted Stevens but never crafted a platform.

Assuming the marquee candidates win their primary races, here's what Ivan Moore found out when he polled general election matchups:

U.S. Senate General Election:

- Mark Begich (D): 55.5 percent
- Ted Stevens (R): 38.5 percent
- Bob Bird (AIP): 2.3 percent
- Fredrick Haase (Lib): 0.4 percent
- Undecided: 3.3 percent

Ivan Moore thinks the only way Stevens has a chance is if he get acquitted on all seven counts.

U.S. House General Election (if Don Young is the Republican nominee):

- Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51.3 percent
- Don Young (R): 40.6 percent
- Don Wright (AIP): 3.9 percent
- Undecided: 4.2 percent

U.S. House General Election (if Sean Parnell is the Republican nominee):

- Sean Parnell (R): 46.0 percent
- Ethan Berkowitz (D): 41.7 percent
- Don Wright (AIP): 3.2 percent
- Undecided 9.1%

So the dilemma we Republicans face - the best House candidate may NOT be the most electable candidate in November. Sean Parnell could beat Ethan Berkowitz, but Sean Parnell is nowhere near as skilled politically as Don Young. I intend to take the risk and vote for Don Young on August 26th, because if Berkowitz defeats Young in November, Berkowitz would be no worse than Parnell would have been. I want the satisfaction of voting for the best Republican House candidate on August 26th, and Don Young overwhelmingly fits the bill.

Ivan Moore plans on three more polls in September and October. The polls have been commissioned by the Anchorage Press, the Mat-Su Frontiersman, KTUU, and KENI 650AM, which represent a good political cross-section.


  1. Given Ivan Moore's relationship with the Berkowitz campaign, I take his poll results with more than a grain of salt. Nice try.

  2. Diane Benson is not done yet. Ivan Moore has been biased against her from the get go so I do not take this poll seriously at all.

  3. To address concerns about the veracity of the poll, it was commissioned by a coalition of local media outlets representing almost the entire political spectrum. That's why I take it more serious than both of you.

    But I will concede that Berkowitz' lead does look larger than it should, considering the effort Diane Benson has put into her campaign. I actually received one of her campaign brochures at home, while I've not received one from Berkowitz. So she's generated some enthusiasm, and has people actively working for her.

    But as Anonymous #1 has implied, the establishment has put its weight behind Berkowitz, and I don't see how Benson can prevail against that type of muscle.