Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Alaska Pride's Predictions For The Alaska 2008 Primary Election

But before I grab my crystal ball, I'll tell you how I'm voting. Click HERE if you need information on how and where to vote.

Click HERE to review the language of the ballot measures and the official partisan statements.

Click HERE to find out more about the candidates for Federal office.

Click HERE to view real-time election results after 9 P.M. Alaska time. Also liveblogged by the Anchorage Daily News HERE.

Ballot Measure 1: I'm voting No. The language is too ambiguous, and could allow the proposed Gaming Commission to expand existing gambling without legislative approval. This is unacceptable. So even though I would like to see Alaska participate in the multi-state Powerball lottery, No is the way to go on this issue.

Ballot Measure 2: I'm voting No. The language is too ambiguous, and it would make it more difficult to respond expeditiously to wildlife emergencies.

Ballot Measure 3: I'm voting No. The measure is excessively complex, bureaucratic, and potentially expensive. It merely shifts the problem, it doesn't solve it.

Ballot Measure 4. I'm voting No. The proponents of this measure used too many dirty tricks to hornswoggle us into voting for it. First, they spammed us with three different versions. Now, they're claiming they merely want to go back to pre-Murkowski standards. These assclowns are so desperate to stop the Pebble Mine that they are willing to jeopardize ALL mining statewide; I've even caught some of the supporters bragging that inflicting some pain on other Alaska mining operations is justified if it stops Pebble. Remember, a No vote on Ballot Measure 4 is NOT a Yes vote for Pebble, so if you're opposed to Pebble, you can vote No on 4 with a clean conscience.

Since I'm taking the Republican ballot, I'll be voting Ted Stevens for Senate and Don Young for House. Stevens is indicted, but he's not convicted, and there's a chance his underreporting on the Senate disclosure forms was an honest mistake. In addition, the Feds are now throwing new and unrelated charges at him. This is clearly becoming a political prosecution. Besides, we need Stevens' seniority.

Don Young is under investigation, but has not even been indicted yet. Young may be a bit "dirty", but he's competent and experienced. And he repeatedly throttled Sean Parnell in debates, scaring Parnell back behind Sarah Palin's apron strings. We also need Young's seniority. To reverse-paraphrase Diane Benson, Alaska is not too old to keep Young.

If I was voting Democratic, I would vote Ethan Berkowitz for House and Mark Begich for Senate. Diane Benson ran a good campaign, but she's too much of a left-wing extremist to effectively represent our diverse state. Berkowitz is a proven conciliator who can effectively work both sides of the aisle.

Predictions

Now that I've dusted off the crystal ball, this is what I see:

Ballot Measure 1: This will fail; look for a 60 percent No vote. The secular and religious elite of the state are united against it; the Alaska Family Council, Eagle Forum Alaska, the Anchorage Daily News, the Voice of the Times, and the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner all advocate against it. This is way too much for the pro-gambling forces to overcome. Outcome: This ballot measure did fail.

Ballot Measure 2: This, unfortunately, will succeed; look for a 60 percent Yes vote. The tree-huggers and Bambi-lovers are all suckers for pictures of soulful-eyed wolf pups. Outcome: Thankfully, this ballot measure failed.

Ballot Measure 3: This, unfortunately, will succeed; but look for only a 55 percent Yes vote. First, the Clean Elections forces got too much of a head start in the campaign. Second, the combined weight of three ex-lawmakers in prison, two more indicted, one U.S. Senator indicted, and a U.S. Representative under investigation may simply be too much to overcome; too many Alaskan voters are so pissed off at our errant lawmakers that they are blind to the deficiencies and dangers of Measure 3. Outcome: This ballot measure failed. Hats off to my fellow Alaskans for not allowing their anger towards our corrupt officials to blind them to the deficiencies of this initiative.

Ballot Measure 4: This will fail, but not by much; look for a 55 percent No vote. Dave Dittman's recent poll looks like an accurate barometer. Enough people are wise to the tactics of the supporters of Measure 4 to drive a well-deserved stake through its heart on election day. Outcome: This ballot measure failed; Dittman's poll proved spot on.

U.S. Senate Race: On the Republican side, look for Ted Stevens to get 60 percent, Dave Cuddy 30 percent, and Vic Vickers only 5 percent. On the Democratic side, Mark Begich will get 80 percent, and Ray Metcalfe 15 percent. Outcome: Top three Republican finishers turned out proportionally as expected. Begich won handily as expected.

U.S. House Race: On the Republican side, Don Young will get 47 percent, Sean Parnell 38 percent, and Gabrielle LeDoux 15 percent. On the Democratic side, Ethan Berkowitz will get 60 percent, Diane Benson 40 percent (Ivan Moore's recent poll looked just a bit too optimistic in Berkowitz's direction). Outcome: Berkowitz about 20 points ahead of Benson. Young and Parnell still too close to call, surprising that so many Republicans disregard Parnell's poor communications skills.

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