Thursday, January 03, 2008
Democrat Barack Obama And Republican Mike Huckabee Win Iowa Caucuses; Ron Paul Flirting With 10 Percent
Well, it looks like my crystal ball was a bit cloudy. Right idea - wrong winners.
Apparently, Hillary Clinton's support is eroding even faster than many people thought, as Barack Obama earned a significant victory tonight in the Iowa caucuses. Clinton ended up duking it out with Edwards for third place. Bill Richardson was much more of an also-ran than I suspected, and his race may be, for all intents and purposes, over with. There are rumors that he may be preparing to make a deal with Obama. A CNN Democratic entrance poll revealed that John Edwards was the favorite of more conservative Democrats, while Hillary Clinton did better amongst seniors and lower-income people. In addition, there was a gender gap amongst Hillary's voters, with 7% more women than men voting for her. Barack Obama was more favored by the rich, and earned an even split between men and women. Final results posted at Politico.com.
Here are the Democratic numbers, with 100% of the precincts reporting:
Barack Obama: 38%
John Edwards: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 29%
Bill Richardson: 2%
Joseph Biden: 1%
I expected Mike Huckabee to do well, but I didn't expect a victory of such magnitude. A CNN Republican entrance poll reveals why Huckabee finished so strongly. Huckabee did singularly well amongst religious voters, particularly evangelicals and "born-again" types. He corralled nearly one-half the women's vote, and also scored well amongst lower-income people. Mitt Romney's primary strength was amongst wealthier people, particularly those who make over $100,000 per year, and amongst those who are not religious. This only further burnishes his image as a "corporate" candidate.
Here are the Republican numbers, with 87% of the precincts reporting:
Mike Huckabee: 34%
Mitt Romney: 25%
John McCain: 13%
Fred Thompson: 13%
Ron Paul: 10%
Rudy Giuliani: 4%
A story published by the San Jose Mercury-News records candidates' reactions. One immediate consequence - both Democrats Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd are expected to formally exit the race at any time now. Another story published by the Anchorage Daily News.
What Ron Paul needs to do now is finally put all that money he raised to work and start advertising more aggressively. A competitive top three finish in New Hampshire is absolutely essential; a win would be quite helpful. Look for additional information on the campaign from the official campaign website, the Ron Paul Forums, and the Daily Paul.