Saturday, November 04, 2006

Rasmussen Now Shows Sarah Palin Ahead By 5 Points In Alaska Gubernatorial Race

This news is a day old, but I'm posting it now to clear up some apparent confusion. A new Rasmussen poll, taken on November 2nd, and sampling 500 likely voters, now shows Alaska Republican gubernatorial candidate Sarah Palin's lead over Democrat Tony Knowles increasing once again:

Sarah Palin (R) - 48%
Tony Knowles (D) - 43%
Undecided - 4%

This poll is SEPARATE and DISTINCT from the Rasmussen poll taken on October 29th showing Palin with only a 1-point lead. The Rasmussen report on the October 29th poll says it's a 2-point lead, 42 to 40, but when they factored in "leaners", they adjusted it to 45-44. It was this latter result that RealClearPolitics posted on their website.

As is their custom, Rasmussen has made the results available only to subscribers. However, the results are posted on the RealClearPolitics website.

Anchorage Daily News reporter Kyle Hopkins talked to two local pollsters today (November 4th), Ivan Moore and Jean Craciun. While neither provided any new numbers, both provided some insight on the race. Hopkins posted an account of his conversation with Ivan Moore on his campaign blog The Trail. Here's an excerpt:

Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore said today [Nov 4] that Palin’s stance on issues like stem cell research, creationism and game management have been underplayed in this election, and that if Knowles loses it will have been a mistake not to focus on them more. Much of Knowles’ message has centered on his experience and his plans for a gas pipeline.

Experience didn’t win the race for Binkley and Murkowski in the primary, did it?” he said.

As for Halcro, Moore said Halcro appeared to be pulling more votes from Knowles recently, and that there had recently been suggestions that Knowles should have looked to reach out to Halcro voters by telling them he would find a place for Halcro in his administration. (Not long ago, I [Hopkins] asked Halcro if he would take a job in either a Palin or Knowles administration. He said it would have to be a role in which he could make a difference - such as chief of staff.)


Hopkins also reported that Jean Craciun told him the race was so close that we could go to bed on election night without determining the winner.

The reason issues like the Iraq War and global warming have been on the back burner is because the natural gas pipeline is such an overwhelming issue that could make or break Alaska's future. Other issues pale by comparison.

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